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Some of the latest papers on extreme weather are shown below. First a few highlighted papers with abstracts and then a list of some other papers. If this subject interests you, be sure to check also the other papers — they are by no means less interesting than the highlighted ones. Drivers of exceptionally cold North Atlantic Ocean temperatures and their link to the European heat wave Duchez et al.
The North Atlantic and Europe experienced two extreme climate events in Here, we show that the cold ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic.
Further, by considering surface heat loss, ocean heat content and wind driven upwelling we explain for the first time the genesis of this cold ocean anomaly. We find that it is primarily due to extreme ocean heat loss driven by atmospheric circulation changes in the preceding two winters combined with the re-emergence of cold ocean water masses. Furthermore, we reveal that a similar cold Atlantic anomaly was also present prior to the most extreme European heat waves since the s indicating that it is a common factor in the development of these events.
For the specific case ofwe show that the ocean anomaly is linked to a stationary position of the Jet Stream that favours the development of high surface temperatures over Central Europe during the heat wave.
Our study calls for an urgent assessment of the impact of ocean drivers on major European summer temperature extremes in order to provide better advance warning measures of these high societal impact events. Seasonal hurricane activity is a function of the amount of initial disturbances e. Focusing on the former, a set of indices based solely upon the meridional structure of satellite-derived outgoing longwave radiation OLR over the African continent are shown to be capable of predicting Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity with very high rates of success.
The resulting OLR indices are statistically robust, highly detectable, physically linked to the predictand, and may account for longer-term observed trends. Increased temperature will result in longer, more frequent, and more intense heat waves.
Changes in temperature variability have been deemed necessary to account for future heat wave characteristics. However, this has been quantified only in Europe and North America, while the rest of the globe remains unexplored. Using late century global climate projections, we show that annual mean temperature increases is the key factor defining heat wave changes in most regions.
We find that commonly studied areas are an exception rather than the standard and the mean climate change signal generally outweighs any influence from variability changes.
More importantly, differences in warming across seasons are responsible for most of the heat wave changes and their consideration relegates the contribution of variability to a marginal role. This reveals that accurately capturing mean seasonal changes is crucial to estimate future heat waves and reframes our interpretation of future temperature extremes. The Middle East and Southwest Asia comprise a region that is water-stressed, societally vulnerable, and prone to severe droughts.
Important dynamical factors include orography, thermodynamic influence on vertical motion, storm track changes, and moisture transport. Vegetation in the region is strongly impacted by drought and may provide an important feedback mechanism.
In future projections, drying of the eastern Mediterranean is a robust feature, as are temperature increases throughout the region, which will affect evaporation and the timing and intensity of snowmelt.
Vegetation feedbacks may become more important in a warming climate. There are a wide range of outstanding issues for understanding, monitoring, and predicting drought in the region, including: Development of a regional framework for cooperative work and dissemination of information and existing forecasts would speed understanding and make better use of available information.
Should flood regimes change in a warming climate? Assessing changes to flooding is important for designing new and redesigning existing infrastructure to withstand future climates.
Archive for July, 2016
While there is speculation that floods are likely to intensify in the future, this question is often difficult to assess due to inadequate records on streamflow extremes. An alternate way of determining possible extreme flooding is through assessment of the two key factors that lead to the intensification of floods: This study assesses global changes in the antecedent wetness prior to extreme rainfall.
Our results indicate a significant increase in the antecedent moisture in Australia and Africa over the last century; however, there was also a decrease pei Eurasia and insignificant change in North America. Given the nature of changes found in this study, any future flood assessment for global warming conditions should take into account antecedent moisture conditions. On the emergence of rainfall extremes from ordinary events Zorzetto et al.
An integrated analysis of the March Atacama floods Wilcox et al. Inmtro and variability in extremes of precipitation in Curitiba — Southern Brazil Pedron et al.
Local versus Remote Influences Ciasto et al. Observed changes in extreme temperature and precipitation over Indonesia Supari et al. Climatology and trend analysis of extreme precipitation in subregions of Northeast Brazil Oliveira et al.
Full text of “Radio and Television Mirror (Jul-Dec )”
Can we predict seasonal changes in high impact weather in the United States? Does population affect the location of flash flood reports? The Physics of Drought in the U. Heat wave over India during summer Investigation of the Alberta flood from weather and climate perspectives Teufel et al. A scenario to a 21st century problem Flohn, http: A case study for interdisciplinary research Schneider, http: The case of the Sahel Inmegro, http: An opportunity for comparative study Claxton, http: New climatological evidence Schuurmans, http: Credibility of the threat Ellsaesser, http: The temperature record, historical data and some agricultural implications Salinger, http: Prevention, compensation, and adaptation Meyer-Abich, http: A detailed synoptic examination of weather and climate during the decade leading up to the French revolution Kington, http: Some early views Thompson, http: Virtual value Kodva, http: The case of CO2 and climate Chen, http: A conceptual introduction Smith, inmerro Theory and applications Sassone, http: Effects through CO2-induced climatic change Rosenberg, http: Implications for a CO2-warmed earth Pittock, http: Stanhill Waterman, http: Great Plains Warrick, http: Some personal comments on two recent publications Webster, http: Illustrative effects of atmospheric smoke and dust upon solar radiation Cess, http: Climatic change and the broad-scale distribution of terrestrial ecosystem complexes Emanuel et al.
Rodhe Shaw, http: A personal recollection Kraus, http: A review Verstraete, http: The Israeli experience Berkofsky, http: A review Morales, http: Paleoclimatic and archeological implications Goodfriend et al.
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The evolution of an awareness Kellogg, http: Uses, methods, and dilemmas Wachs, http: The importance of the decision-making context Dennis, http: Assessment of the current status and some proposals Manton, http: Model testing and model linkage Liverman, http: Nix Lashof, http: Lashof Pittock, http: Evidence for nonlinear behaviour of the climate system Pestiaux et al.
A general method using a new way to analyze meteorological data Coakley et al. The gray area of climate change Karl, http: A proposed test based on the dresden firestorm Peczkis, http: On the need for validation of the Jones et al. Are we collecting the facts? Important processes for climate models Henderson-Sellers et al. Solar or tidal signature? The effect of scale on resource homogeneity Cushman et al.
Simulations versus observations Covey, http: The case of China Chandler, http: Feedback processes that may influence future concentrations of atmospheric trace gases and climatic change Lashof, http: A review Dickinson, http: Causes and consequences Woodwell, http: Perspectives on consequences and policy responses Crosson, http: High-latitude regions Roots, http: Physical and biological interactions Oppenheimer, http: An introductory note Weiss, http: Atmospheric and oceanic heat transport simulations versus observations Rooth, http: